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Papa John's (PZZA) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 29, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, its earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.4%.

Q4 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 73 cents per share, suggesting growth of 2.8% from the prior-year quarter. Over the past 30 days, earnings estimates have remained stable. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $578.9 million, suggesting growth of 10% from the prior-year reported figure.

Factors to Note

Papa John's fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results are likely to be aided by expansion efforts, sales building initiatives and digitalization. Robust North America comparable sales are likely to have driven the top line.

Papa John’s is making substantial investments in technology-focused strategies, mainly digital ordering, to drive sales. Their online and digital marketing efforts have notably expanded in recent years, responding to the rising utilization of online and mobile web technology. These efforts are likely to have aided the company’s results.

We expect domestic company-owned restaurant sales and international revenues to increase 12.2% and 19.1% from the year-ago levels, respectively. We project North America commissary revenues and North America franchise royalties & fees to rise 3.6% and 11.4% from the year-earlier actuals, respectively.

Preliminary Results

Last month, the company reported fourth-quarter 2023 preliminary results. In the fourth quarter ending Dec 31, 2023, global system-wide sales totaled nearly $1.3 billion, reflecting a 12% increase year over year. Excluding the 53rd week in 2023, sales growth for the quarter came in at 3%.

In North America, comparable sales (on a 13-week basis) for the fourth quarter of 2023 rose 2% year over year. The upside was driven by transaction and ticket growth at both Domestic Company-owned restaurants and North America franchised restaurants. In 2023, North America comparable sales (on a 52-week basis) were up 1% year over year, courtesy of 3% growth at Domestic Company-owned restaurants. International comparable sales for the fourth quarter and full-year 2023 were down 6% and 4%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Papa John's this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Papa John's has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Papa John's carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

Costco (COST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.58% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings per share is pegged at $3.60, up 9.1% from the year-ago levels. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Costco’s top line is expected to ascend from the prior-year figures. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $59.2 billion, which indicates an increase of 7.1% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.6%, on average.

Ollie's Bargain (OLLI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.12% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $1.16 suggests an increase of 38.1% from the year-ago reported number.

Ollie's Bargain’s top line is expected to ascend from a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $649.1 million, which suggests an increase of 18.1% from the prior-year quarter. OLLI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7%, on average.

Burlington Stores (BURL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.27% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to register a bottom-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $3.25 suggests a rise of 9.8% from the year-ago quarter.

Burlington Stores’ top line is anticipated to advance from the year-earlier levels. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $3.02 billion, indicating an increase of 9.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported. BURL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.4%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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